Between the gradual decline in credit rates, the end of the Pinel scheme, tax adjustments on LMNP, and a transaction market that is regaining fluidity, the parameters of a real estate project are no longer interpreted the same way as they were two years ago. What indicators should be monitored to decide between purchasing in the old market, new construction, or indirect rental investment?
Credit, taxation, and prices: three levers moving simultaneously
The current difficulty does not stem from a single factor. It arises from the fact that credit, taxation, and prices are evolving simultaneously, sometimes in opposing directions. A declining borrowing rate improves purchasing capacity, but a tightening of tax regulations on furnished rentals reduces the net profitability of a rental investment.
| Parameter | Recent Trend | Impact on the Project |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage rates | Gradual decline since the peak at the end of 2023 | Increased borrowing capacity, return of buyers to the market |
| Prices in the old market | Moderate correction, varying by city | Wider negotiation margin than in 2022 |
| Pinel scheme | Removed, no new subscriptions | Reorientation towards other structures (LMNP, SCPI, tax deficit) |
| LMNP taxation | Recent changes to the depreciation regime | Net profitability to be recalculated before any commitment |
| New market | Timid recovery, driven by the focused PTZ | Opportunities in certain eligible tight areas |
This table does not imply that one choice is better than another. It shows that each decision must consider at least three variables. A purchase in the old market at a negotiated price may become less attractive if energy renovation works increase the budget. Conversely, a new property eligible for the focused PTZ may offset a higher price per square meter with reduced financing costs.
To track these developments and compare options, the resources dedicated to real estate on the Maison Créa website allow for cross-referencing different approaches based on the type of project.
Rental investment after Pinel: alternatives to consider
The disappearance of the Pinel scheme leaves a gap that several mechanisms are trying to fill, but none replace it identically. The choice of investment vehicle now depends on the desired level of involvement and the investor’s tax profile.
LMNP and tax deficit: two different logics
The status of non-professional furnished landlord remains accessible, but recent changes in the treatment of depreciation affect the calculation of capital gains upon resale. An investor planning to hold the property for a long time will still find it beneficial. Those considering a medium-term resale must factor this parameter in from the acquisition stage.
The tax deficit, on the other hand, concerns older properties with renovation. It allows for the deduction of renovation expenses from rental income, or even from overall income within certain limits. This option suits highly taxed taxpayers who are willing to manage a construction project.
SCPI: the repositioning of flows
Real estate investment companies (SCPI) have seen a resurgence of interest evident over several quarters, with a net increase in collections for new diversified SCPIs. This shift in flows reflects a search for risk mutualization. An investor who does not wish to manage a property directly or depend on a single tenant finds a liquid alternative here.
The downside: entry fees, the delay in enjoyment, and the absence of credit leverage as favorable as for a direct purchase. SCPIs do not replace a traditional rental investment; they occupy a complementary place in a wealth strategy.
Residential purchase in 2024-2025: deciding between old and new
For a primary residence purchase, the question is no longer just “where to buy” but “in what condition to buy.” The DPE now weighs on the resale value and the rental conditions of an old property.
- A property classified F or G requires energy renovation works before any rental, which increases the initial budget but may create a discount at purchase
- The focused PTZ on tight areas and new collective housing offers a significant financing lever for first-time buyers, provided geographical eligibility is verified
- Building plots are regaining appeal among households wishing to control energy performance from the design stage, thus avoiding future compliance costs
The price gap between old properties needing renovation and new compliant ones is narrowing when considering the actual cost of energy works. An older property listed at a lower price may end up costing the same total amount as a new program, without benefiting from builder guarantees.
HCSF standards and borrowing capacity: what truly constrains the project
The standards of the High Council for Financial Stability remain the structuring framework for access to credit. The maximum effort rate and capped duration continue to limit the amounts that can be borrowed, even when rates decline.
The decline in rates does not always offset the maintenance of HCSF criteria. A household whose income has not increased in two years sees its borrowing capacity increase marginally, not dramatically. The real gain depends on the rate differential between when the project was postponed and when it materializes.
Two levers remain underutilized by borrowers:
- Reasonable extension of the loan duration, which reduces the monthly payment without exceeding the regulatory ceiling, provided one accepts a higher total credit cost
- Smoothing of complementary loans (PTZ, action housing loan) which allows staying below the debt threshold by spreading repayments over time
- Renegotiation or buyout of ongoing loans, relevant only if the rate difference with the initial loan exceeds a significant threshold
Each project deserves an updated simulation. The market conditions of January are no longer those of June, and a difference of a few tenths of a point on the rate can represent several thousand euros over the total duration of the loan.
The real estate market of 2024-2025 rewards neither prolonged waiting nor haste. It favors buyers who cross-reference their data: actual borrowing capacity, applicable taxation to their situation, energy state of the targeted property. It is this data-driven approach, not intuition, that separates a completed project from a suspended one.